MDP fails to emerge as the main opposition; but can they?

The Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) is huge. At least in size. It is over 50,000 members big. But in terms of results, it is smaller than the tiny People’s National Front (PNF).

When the MDP went back to the opposition following failure in both rounds of the presidential elections last year, it created public discourse. But back then, everyone believed that MDP would be the main opposition to the new President Dr. Mohamed Muizzu administration. It was only natural, wasn’t it?

When the new president took office on November 17 last year, there were already signs of friction within the ruling party.

Less than a week into the new administration, former President Abdulla Yameen Abdul Gayoom, the then-leader of the ruling coalition composed of the Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) and the People’s National Congress (PNC), left the PPM to form his own party. He later explained that he left the ruling coalition after he grew certain there were no opportunities for him there.

This changed the entire political landscape. Naturally, all eyes were on Yameen as he, the longtime leader of PPM-PNC, became the opposition.

The few half-hearted moves by the MDP lacked any fuel. It did not draw much attention. But the remarks Yameen made about the new administration while sitting in a chair in his own home captivated the public.

Though Yameen’s remarks drew attention, given the small size of his party and a seemingly lack of popularity, recent elections proved bitter for the former Maldivian leader.

Who is the opposition leader?

There are two major players in the opposition; the MDP and Yameen’s PNF.

Though big in size, what MDP lacks is a leader. Someone who can unite party lines and lead it. To outside observers, there are to key figures within the party; Chairperson Fayyaz Ismail and President Abdulla Shahid. But their popularity needs testing.

The MDP, with its rallies, press conferences and the new lawmakers it has left, is seen trying to create a spirit of opposition.

There are three main reasons why MDP is failing to draw the attention it craves, while Yameen appears to effortlessly hold the public captivated. For one, Yameen was once the leader of current government officials. He was the one who commanded them. Therefore, Yameen enjoys the same attention that former President Mohamed Nasheed drew when he left the then-ruling MDP last year.

Secondly, Yameen’s remarks address issues of key public concern. He also dissects, analyzes and responds to every single decision the government makes.

One thing evident from the results of this year’s parliamentary elections is that despite the attention he enjoys, he lacks powerful political allies. He is politically isolated. If he wants to produce results in elections, he needs able and popular political leaders by his side.

Yameen’s political future is intertwined with the government’s mistakes. If the government’s missteps increase, he will grow more powerful. But the lack of a strong political team is PNF’s biggest weakness.

This is where the MDP’s chances lie. The party has a former president, former cabinet ministers, incumbent lawmakers, and experienced politicians. What the party lacks is a leader to unite and guide them.

“Neither Fayyaz nor Shahid appear to enjoy much popularity. MDP needs a more charismatic figure to lead the party,” opinioned a political analyst.

As things stand, Yameen has emerged as country’s opposition leader for these five years. But the MDP continues to have better chances at elections. That is because of weaknesses within both parties.

MDP needs a new face

The one thing that can become evident from MDP’s failure in recent elections is that the party needs a new face.

“Its still the same people holding press conferences. People like [former Finance Minister Ibrahim] Ameer and [former Managing Director of RDC, Moosa Ali Manik] Mookay. These people have been rejected by the people in elections,” said the political analyst who spoke before.

There is some truth to this. Of the few parliamentary seats the MDP won this year, many were won by new faces. Long-serving lawmakers and people who held powerful positions in the past failed to get elected.

“Whether you look at [Male’ City’s] Mayor Adam Azim or MDP’s incumbent lawmakers, the popular figures within the party are new faces. MDP does not have much chance these five years unless it makes way for these new figures and bring them out to the frontlines,” he said.

No party has gained power unless it accommodates a shift in public sentiment, a need for change. Sometimes, these shifts are born out of lack of any other choice. But, based of the country’s political history, no party has been able to regain power unless this shift happens, regardless of how or why it comes.

In 2013, the first PPM administration got elected because it got space for such a shift. And in 2018, a shift within the MDP, though born out of necessarily, paved the path for the party’s second administration. And in 2023, the PPM-PNC came back to power because of another forced shift within the party’s leadership.

MDP’s future lies with such a shift.

While the MDP may be bigger in size, PNF is a more powerful opposition party. As the cards play out, if the MDP wants to restore its past fervor and passion, it needs to make changes.

The party has no chance of gaining any foothold in the opposition, otherwise.