May 31, possible peak day of overload in virus cases

National Emergency Operations Center has projected that the Maldives could see a surge of COVID-19 cases on May 31.

Speaking in a press conference tonight, NEOC consultant Dr. Sheena Moosa stated that the country could see 1600 cases on the day, and overload of ICUs in the country.

The doctor projected the estimated rate and direction of COVID-19 in the Male’ area tonight, after 24 days since the city was placed in lockdown and curfew due to the first community spread case.

The current projections showed that the virus was spreading among two groups. One is where many live together or else known as communal groups and the next was the household groups, says Dr. Sheena. 

The communal group was the one most affected by the virus. The contact bubble for the group on average stands at 45 and the disease spreads quickly among this group who are more exposed to it, says Dr. Sheena.

The contact bubble for the Household group remains at a relatively low figure of eight which meant that the disease was not spreading as quickly among this group.

Based on how the virus was spreading among the community, the country would reach its peak within two or three weeks. On that day, the positive cases could number by thousands, says Dr. Sheena. 

“On the 31st of this month, the projections show that the surge reaches its peak. There may be 1600 infections on that day. I will not say we will see this figure, because it depends very much on our testing and reporting.” Says Dr. Sheena.

Projections regarding the peak were also shared by the doctor. Due to the lower capacity of testing, Maldives may identify only 400 cases on that day, while in actuality 1600 cases could occur, according to Dr. Sheena. 34 people may need to be hospitalized and 12 people may have to be treated in intensive care.

Active cases may number at 6804 at the time, with 281 individuals hospitalized and 101 ICU patients as well. This means that the 100 bed capacity of ICUs in the country may be overloaded.

In total, the disease may infect 77,305 people. 13,568 may have to be hospitalized with 5,805 people needing ICA care.

She advised the public to work to reduce the surge that is expected within this month. 

“The chance that the virus could spread among locals could increase if not careful and the little surge may get closer to early June.” Says Dr. Sheena.