MET says ongoing El Nino could shift rainfall and temperature patterns across the Maldives as monitoring continues

The national weather service, Maldives Meteorological Service (MET) has said it is monitoring the impact of the natural climate phenomenon known as El Nino in the Pacific Ocean.

El Nino refers to major global climate shifts triggered when sea‑surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific rise above normal. The phenomenon occurs every two to seven years, with effects that typically last between nine and 12 months, though some episodes persist longer.

According to data released by MET on Monday, El Nino has a significant influence on global weather patterns, ecosystems and economies. The agency confirmed that El Nino conditions are currently present in the Pacific, with sea‑surface temperatures in the central and eastern basin now above average.

MET noted that during El Nino years, the Maldives may receive more rainfall than usual in some months and less in others, and that the impacts vary from one El Nino event to another. The agency said it is closely monitoring ongoing changes.

El Nino can influence rainfall during the western monsoon season, MET said, adding that June and July are typically among the wettest months of the year. The office had earlier forecast reduced rainfall for June, followed by an increase in July as the peak season begins.

International climate agencies have also warned that long‑range models continue to signal the possibility of a strong to potentially “super” El Nino developing towards the end of 2026. Such events are rare and have historically brought hotter temperatures, prolonged dry spells, coral bleaching, and irregular rainfall across the equatorial region, including the Maldives.

El Niño conditions are now present in the Pacific Ocean. It can affect weather, wildfires, marine ecosystems, and economies worldwide. MMS is closely monitoring the status of the El Niño and other climate drivers, including IOD and MJO. pic.twitter.com/KxodwYJJnF

— Maldives Meteorology (@MetMaldives) June 29, 2026

MET’s latest advisory does not update the long‑range outlook; instead, it provides historical rainfall‑anomaly maps and reminds the public that ENSO alone does not determine local weather. Other climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), also shape rainfall and temperature patterns in the Maldives.

MET says it will continue monitoring all relevant climate indicators as the 2026 ENSO outlook becomes clearer.